2013 Electrical Equipment Finds Bright Spots from Industry Lows

2013 Electrical Equipment Finds Bright Spots from Industry Lows In 2012, the increase in demand is expected to remain at around 10%. The surplus ratio of polysilicon, wafers, batteries, and components at the supply side remains at over 50%. Excessive supply will pose great pressure on the price increase of photovoltaic products. The current price of polysilicon and wafers will also drop. The gross profit margins of the cells and components have shown signs of stabilization. It is expected that the gross profit of the entire line will stabilize before the end of the year. The price of components will bottom out at the earliest in the next year. Whether it rebounds depends on the elimination rate of marginal capacity. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” was promulgated, with a total of approximately 15gw exceeding expectations, and the domestic market will grow rapidly in the future. Polysilicon prices will continue to fall, and scale and cold hydrogenation are key to reducing costs. The main attraction in 2012 was the rebound in product prices, and the selection of battery and component companies was the best choice.

Wind power: long-term development of wind power will slow down, and gross profit will bottom out in the middle of next year, focusing on changes in raw materials. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, wind power growth will slow down for a long time. Power transmission bottlenecks, power quality and acquisition contradictions are the three major constraints. The delayed delivery of wind turbines is prominent. The growth rate next year depends on the progress of the State Grid inspections and improvement of the credit environment. At present, the tender price has begun to rebound, and the gross profit margin of the company is expected to bottom out in the middle of next year, which will increase in the third quarter. The decrease in key raw materials has little effect on the gross profit of wind turbines, and it focuses on investment opportunities in phases. The future increase in the wind power industry looks at the export market, but its short-term contribution is limited.

Nuclear power: Focusing on the direction of policies, the next three generations of competition have not yet made clear that nuclear power is greatly affected by policies. Next year, we will focus on the implementation of important policies. First of all, the fine-tuning of the medium and long-term plans will slow down the pace of nuclear power construction. The orders for units under construction next year will ensure that there will be no major fluctuations in corporate income. Approval will be passed next year, but projects that have not yet commenced construction will be resumed quickly. Unit projects for inland nuclear power projects are being cancelled, and it is expected that 9 million kilowatts will be started in the next two years. In the future, ap1000 will be the main reactor type, and the relevant competitive landscape is not yet clear, focusing on leading enterprises.

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