China's new energy power generation analysis report: photovoltaic power costs fell 50% in five years

The policy of lowering the on-grid tariff for photovoltaic power generation and onshore wind power has been officially implemented since January 1. Behind the introduction of the new regulations, the two are moving farther and farther on the way to reduce costs.

The 2015 China New Energy Power Generation Analysis Report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) released by the State Grid Energy Research Institute shows that since 2010, the component price, initial investment cost and electricity cost of photovoltaic power generation have been in the downward channel, and the decline Larger.

Component prices "falling down" Sino-German rooftop PV is the most competitive

Due to continuous advances in production technology, the price of PV modules has been “falling down” for several years. According to the Report, from 2009 to 2014, the global price of PV modules dropped by an average of 75%.

The price of components for small systems is higher than for large systems.

Compared with rooftop PV, the price of components of ground PV power plants has dropped even more. From 2009 to 2014, the price of rooftop PV modules fell by 69% to 73%, while the price of components for ground PV plants fell by 77%.

The price of components is lower, driving the unit cost of the photovoltaic power station is also down.

From 2010 to 2014, the unit cost per kilowatt of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the world dropped by 29% to 65%. Among them, in 2014, the cost per kilowatt of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the world was 9644~26660 yuan/kW (in the same amount) in China; 10243 yuan/kW in China, down 16% year-on-year.

The unit cost of distributed photovoltaics has also dropped significantly. The roof photovoltaic units in Germany and China are the most competitive in terms of kilowatts. The cost of kilowatts for rooftop PV units in Germany has dropped from 50005 yuan/kW in the first quarter of 2008 to 13514 yuan/kW in the first quarter of 2014. China is roughly equal to Germany.

The cost of rooftop PV units in other major developed countries is much higher than that of China and Germany. In 2014, the average cost per watt of rooftop PV in the United States, Italy and France was 26,414 yuan / kW, 20,271 yuan / kW, 31,328 yuan / kW, 50% to 130% higher than China and Germany.

Photovoltaic power generation costs fall by half in five years. Tower-type CSP has potential

According to the "Report", from 2010 to 2014, the average electricity cost of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the world dropped by half, from 1.97 yuan / kWh in 2010 to 0.98 yuan / kWh in 2014. The average electricity cost of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in China dropped from 1.47 yuan/kWh in 2010 to 0.68 yuan/kWh in 2014.

According to the reporter's understanding, the world's most competitive large-scale photovoltaic power station can provide electricity with a power cost of 0.49 yuan / kWh without financial support. Although low cost has been achieved, to reduce it to 0.37 yuan / kWh, there is still a need to improve battery efficiency, reduce financing costs and have better resource conditions.

In addition, the average electricity cost of global distributed photovoltaic power plants has also dropped from 2.03 to 5.65 yuan / kWh in 2010 to 0.86 ~ 2.89 yuan / kWh in 2014, a decline of more than 50%.

The "Report" pointed out that the cost competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation will be further enhanced in the future. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the retail price of monocrystalline silicon PV modules will fall to 2.46 to 2.76 yuan / watt by 2025. The initial investment cost of large-scale PV power plants will drop to 6757~7371 yuan/kW. The roof PV investment cost is expected to drop to 9828 ~ 12286 yuan / kW. By 2025, the average electricity cost of photovoltaic power generation will drop to 0.37~0.92 yuan/kWh.

IRENA also predicts that by 2025, the investment cost of trough CSP projects will fall by 20% to 45%. Tower-type CSP technology has a large potential for reducing electricity costs. By 2025, the average electricity cost will drop to 0.68-0.98 yuan/kWh.

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