Culprit in the big eye crisis: excessive use of financial leverage

2012 is destined to be an eventful autumn. This sentence is definitely in the LED display industry. However, the Haobo incident has not subsided yet. The crisis in the big picture has already come to the fore. Unlike the previous Brent and the vision, the scale of the two companies It is bigger and has a wider impact. Almost all the mainstream suppliers in the industry have been dragged into the water. For a time, everyone in the industry is at risk and talks about money. Even the unprecedented unity of the mainstream suppliers in the industry, three days a phone call, five days to meet, a casual reminder topic can shake everyone's fragile nerves. As for the emergence and resolution of the crisis, the future of the road is also a heavy reference to every industry participant.

Anyone who knows the big eye knows that the fuse of the big-eyed problem is the game of interest between the major shareholders and the entrepreneurial team. As the game deepens, the uncompromising interests of both parties ultimately lead to the closure of the enterprise. The funds are frozen and the employees are separated. When the two parties finally go to court, many suppliers will wake up like a dream. No matter who the loser is, hundreds of suppliers will become the funeral of the losers. The difference is only the proportion of funeral. The fuse is ultimately the fuse. In my opinion, the culprit that really caused the crisis in the big eye is actually the excessive use of financial leverage, and the excessive use of this financial leverage has also led to the crisis of Haobo.

Lao Wang experienced a joke. Last month, he and a colleague agreed to go to a large-scale display enterprise in an industry. Before he left, he was rejected by the other boss, and he answered that one person came to worship the tea. The two people came together. Why? The boss admits that at the moment when the industry is in danger, the heads of the leading industries of the two industries will go to a screen factory at the same time. If they are speculated as a debt, the other party is in danger. In addition to his sighs, Pharaoh remembered an MP3 company that closed down in Xixiang eight years ago. The company’s business is down: On a certain day, the sales manager of the company’s main material supplier used to collect money, and it was unfortunate that the car was at the door of the customer’s factory. Puncture, he called back to the company for help, and the company's internal colleagues mistakenly thought that the manager had to obstruct the account outside, so the nerves were tight, about three or five colleagues killed the door, not forgetting to inform other familiar friends in the industry before going. So a few hours, the well-known MP3 companies in this industry were robbed by the swarming suppliers, and the boss had no choice but to stop running.

The advantage of jokes is that the topic is not so heavy, but in fact, business management is destined to be a heavy topic, why is the company's ability to resist risks so bad? A joke, a misunderstanding will bring difficulties? And the shareholder relationship, one or two bad debts in the district, can drag and drop a display factory with hundreds of millions of sales? It seems ridiculous, if you study it carefully, you will find that there are inevitable problems. The core of the problem is that LED display companies are now over-amplifying the leverage of funds. This leverage has long exceeded the actual risk control boundary. Lao Wang has studied finance for a few years, hoping to use only a small amount of inventory left. Everyone makes an analysis: if enterprises want to develop, they must rely on external funds. This is the debt. Too little debt indicates that the company has insufficient development momentum and too much debt, indicating that the company has higher risks. And a reasonable balance of debt is the financial leverage goal that a healthy company should pursue. This goal is quantified as the asset-liability ratio. Asset-liability ratio = total liabilities / total assets * 100%, assets refer to the total of fixed assets and current assets of the enterprise, while a reasonable asset-liability ratio is generally considered to be about 50%, and enterprises in the development period may reach 60%.

Taking Bigeye and Haobo as an example, the author can't know exactly the asset-liability ratio of the two companies. However, from the current arrears and inventory, the big-eye debt is estimated to be more than 50 million, and the assets are estimated to be less than 50 million. In other words, the current asset-liability ratio of the big eye is estimated to have exceeded 100%. Of course, this is the author's statement, and there is no data source. You can't rely on this. And Haobo is similar, and the asset-liability ratio is estimated to exceed 100%. Then the problem comes. For a company with such a high asset-liability ratio, the occurrence of a crisis becomes a high-probability event. It is nothing more than a question of where the fuse is lit. Even if today’s problem does not occur, there will be a few days later. The sales manager of the model has a puncture at the door of the other factory, which will also have irreparable consequences.

Taking people as a guide, you can understand the gains and losses. Everyone on the display screen asked themselves, and today there are several screen factories whose asset-liability ratio is below 50%, several are over 60% high risk, and several are over 100% of the collapsed edge. ? The specific data Pharaoh can not be evaluated, but based on the industry immersion in the past few years, I can basically affirm that the current asset-liability ratio of most unlisted screen factories in the industry is far above the safety margin of 50%. If things are as expected, I hope that you can calm down and study the issue of assets and liabilities. Excessive capital leverage is both a strong point and a coffin board.

If you find that your company's asset-liability ratio has exceeded 60%, congratulations, your company is fortunate to be one of the high-risk players in the industry. The person in charge of purchasing that you rely on is also using the money to extend the supplier's payment. The right in your hands and your ability to dig a grave for your business. Then you can choose to raise or dismiss it, and the author thinks that dismissal may be more reliable.

In fact, the issue of assets and liabilities also involves another problem, that is, the way the industry trades. Today, I think that the entire industry's trading methods also urgently need a radical change. The way of relying too much on lending to obtain orders will be buried together with the enterprises that fell in this cycle. At least the current mainstream packaging factories have almost reached a tacit agreement. For the risky enterprises, they will stop lending at the same time, which will bring immeasurable progress to the whole industry in the long run. Then IC, cabinet, material supply group, where are you going? The answer is obvious. At present, a customer who is over-pursuing the support of suppliers is no longer a bodhisattva of grace, but a Shura of life.

As the industry matures, the LED display industry will surely become more mature from the initial enthusiasm, and the LED industry will truly play an increasingly important role in the country's industrial process. Some people fall down, some people pay tuition fees, some people quit, and more people will mature and improve. Today, we are calling for a healthy industry order. The establishment of this industry order requires not only bloody tuition, but also the joint efforts of the state, industry associations, and many industry companies. The author sincerely hopes that all the sweaty participants will Can harvest their labor income in the sun.

[The author of this article is Wang Peng, general manager of Baishi Optoelectronics. The texts and opinions expressed in the text have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves. 】

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