Photovoltaic industry or real recovery in 2014

According to Jesse Pichel, an analyst at Jeffreys, an investment bank, the global photovoltaic demand growth has reached the best level, but the agency believes that the photovoltaic industry can see the real recovery signal in the second half of 2013, or even by 2014. In the second half of 2012, the demand in the European market will decline further than in the first half of the year, and demand in 2013 will continue to decline.

Overall, although the lower component average selling price is favorable to the industry, demand elasticity will change as component manufacturers have to deal with lower-than-expected revenue data. It is expected that the suppliers' price for the secondary suppliers will be in the range of 0.51–0.55 Euro per watt in the fourth quarter, which will result in a healthy competition among project developers.

Pichel said that at present, component manufacturers will face a two-year period of low profit or no profit, and it seems wise to shift focus to power station projects. "In the market that provides photovoltaic subsidies, project developers are receiving high returns."

As far as the PV market is concerned, the German PV market is expected to remain relatively healthy in the second half of 2012, but due to the unknown possibility of changes in subsidies, demand will be slightly reduced. Demand for the Italian market has slowed significantly, with a total installed capacity of 2 GW at the end of the year.

The real survivors of the photovoltaic industry, the Japanese, U.S., and Chinese markets will continue to maintain upward trends, while South America and African countries will also emerge.

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